Global Electric Bus Market - Share, Size, Growth, Outlook - Industry Trends and ?Forecast to 2028

The electric vehicle market is expanding globally, though passenger vehicles and two-wheelers are dominating the global EV market. The commercial electric vehicles market in general and the electric bus market particularly is also on the growth path. The global electric bus market is driven by a number of factors including:

• Government support and incentives: Due to the rising concerns over air pollution and the need to meet the carbon emission reduction targets and NDCs (Nationally determined contributions) to combat climate change, major governments are promoting electric buses with supportive policies and incentives.
• Improved battery technology: Electric buses are now more appealing to operators due to improvements in battery capacity that have expanded their driving range and lowered their ownership costs and reduced range anxiety.
• Rising demand for sustainable, emission-free public transportation and the need to reduce traffic congestion.

However, the high initial cost of electric buses compared to conventional diesel or gasoline-powered buses, lack of charging infrastructure in many regions, reliability of batteries and the limited lifespan of batteries are major concerns, and interoperability issues between different charging systems due to the lack of standardization in e-bus charging infrastructure market are the major factors restraining the growth of global electric bus market. 

Definition

An electric bus is a bus that uses electric propulsion system i.e., electric motors as opposed to an internal combustion engine. Electric buses include internal energy storage systems or can also receive continuous external power supplies. The majority of buses that store electricity are battery electric buses, which get their power from an onboard battery pack.

Market Dynamics

Drivers: Government incentives

Government incentives are the major drivers of the e-bus market across the world. China is the leading electric bus manufacturing country and has the most electric buses deployed by any country in the world. Currently, about 98 per cent of the electric buses in the world are deployed in Chinese cities and this has been the result of continued government support in the form of subsidies.

The government's requirement that all buses run on renewable energy, along with considerable national and local government subsidies, made it possible for China's fleet to be electrified quickly and at a significantly reduced upfront cost.

For example, in the city of Shenzhen in China, the public transportation provider in Shenzhen received state assistance worth CNY 500,000 (USD 74,000) per electric bus acquired every year for nine years. By 2017, the city had a fleet of 16,359 buses that were entirely electric, serving a population of 12 million.

Restraints: High Upfront Cost

Despite low maintenance cost and savings on fuel, the upfront cost of an electric bus is significantly higher than a conventional bus. A typical diesel bus costs roughly USD 500,000, while an electric bus costs USD 750,000, and a diesel school bus costs USD 110,000, while an electric school bus costs USD 230,000. For many governments and administrations, this poses a significant obstacle to implementing e-buses in the public transportation sector.

Current Scenario

In 2021, China, Europe, and the US saw a growth in the registration of electric buses. Despite a relatively stable worldwide bus market, sales of electric buses climbed 40% over the previous year. The electric bus market is dominated by China, as in past years, and new electric bus registrations continue to rise.

India is also emerging as a major country in electric bus deployment. Electric bus deployment expanded in India from zero in 2017 to 4,647 buses in 2021. The majority of these-about two thirds-are midi 9-meter buses, and the remaining third are typical 12-meter buses. Over 50% of the e-buses operating in India are based in the cities of Pune and Delhi.

Regional Analysis

Asia-Pacific

Asia Pacific is leading the world in terms of deploying EVs in public transport. With China and India, the region continues to dominate the global electric bus market. The growth is being driven primarily by municipal purchases throughout Asia-Pacific, especially in China. The Chinese government is subsidizing electric vehicle adoption as regional and municipal markets move to modernize their transit systems with new EVs.

South East Asia is also emerging as a promising market for electric buses. The governments are planning to transition to zero-emission public transportation system. For instance, by 2030, Indonesia wants to replace 90% of the city's transit vehicles with electric buses. By 2030, Malaysia wants to have 2,000 electric buses. By 2030, electric vehicles (EVs) will account for 21% of all vehicle sales in the Philippines. Singapore intends to phase out ICE vehicles by 2040 and replace 3,000 public buses with e-buses by 2030. By 2030, Thailand hopes to sell 33,000 zero emission buses.

Europe

Fully electric bus adoption has expanded quickly in Europe, from 5% of sales share in 2016 to 10% in 2021. This tendency appears to be accelerating, partly due to demand-side policies implemented by local and federal governments. By the end of 2021, there were over 8,500 electric buses operating throughout Europe (includes not only battery electric buses but also plugin hybrid electric buses, trolleybus IMC and fuel cell buses).

Europe witnessed the largest deployment of electric buses and has become a fast-growing market. In Europe, the number of electric bus registrations rose by 48% in 2021 compared to 2020. The first three European nations to register more than 500 e-buses in 2021 were Germany (555 units), the United Kingdom (540), and France (512).

Similar to the case of the Netherlands, numerous Member States have committed to making their whole bus fleet zero-emission by as soon as 2030. At the local level, more aggressive goals are seen. For example, by 2025, Amsterdam and Copenhagen intend to have a 100% zero-emission bus fleet, and by 2040, over half of all European capital cities plan to have the same.

However, high-income nations in Western Europe are the ones driving the majority of the ambition, with lower-income Eastern European nations showing less of a change.

North America

The number of battery-electric transit buses (BEBs) on order or in service increased by 112% in the United States from 2018 to 2021. With about 1,400 vehicles now on the road or on order, California leads the country, followed by Washington, New York, and Florida. There are also increasing numbers of fuel-cell electric buses, which are much less common.

States like Austin, Texas, Seattle, Los Angeles, and Oakland, California, are pioneers in the adoption of battery-powered buses. Smaller communities including Portland, Maine; Duluth, Minnesota; and Gainesville, Florida are also incorporating these buses.

Canada is also picking up the pace in adopting electric buses for its public transportation needs. In Dec 2022, the Canadian government announced CAD 3.3 million in joint funding for a battery-electric bus pilot program in the City of Barrie, Ontario. 

Opportunities

• Amid the growing popularity of e-buses, Southeast Asian countries with domestic production capacities are offering various incentives to encourage investment in the production of electric vehicles, including electric buses and their key components. Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam are the major markets for buses in Southeast Asia due to the large population size of these countries which use public transport extensively. Comparatively, buses are the main mode of transportation in Singapore, offering a great opportunity for electric bus manufacturers to expand their business.
• The majority of the states in the United States have pledged to increase the use of electric school buses. For instance, Kathy Hochul, the governor of New York, and legislators reached an agreement on a USD 220 billion state budget in April 2022 that included a plan to convert all 50,000 or so school buses in the state to electric power by 2035.

Recent Key Developments

• The electric bus fleet in Santiago surpassed the historic thousand units mark in Feb 2023, and by the end of this year, the Chilean government aims to double that number to 2,000.
• In Feb 2023, the Danish capital Copenhagen and the enclave of Frederiksberg, which is completely surrounded by Copenhagen’s urban area, announced its plan to completely electrify the last five bus routes by 2025 in order to make the entire fleet of buses in the region electric.
• The 974 million Canadian dollar budget required to buy 350 electric buses by 2027 was agreed by Ottawa City Council in February 2023. Of that, CAD 653 million will be spent on buses, CAD 214 million on infrastructure for electric vehicle charging, and CAD 107 million on transition expenditures, which include establishing a new vehicle storage facility and renovating two already existing ones.
• On February 2, 2023, TransLink (South Coast British Columbia Transportation Authority) has announced that it will advance the electrification of its bus fleet by introducing a new model of battery electric bus.  The new electric bus can cover 150 kilometers on a single charge and can be recharged using overhead chargers along the route in around five minutes. TransLink is expected to save around CAD 40,000 yearly on fuel expenditures due to the zero-emission vehicles.
• The second tender for 4,675 electric buses under the National Electric Bus Program was announced by Convergence Energy Services Ltd (CESL), an entirely owned subsidiary of Energy Efficiency Services Ltd (EESL), in January 2023. After the Grand Challenge tender for 5,450 electric buses, and a recently finished tender for 6465 electric buses, this is the third electric bus tender by the Indian government.

The new report from Blackridge Research on Global Electric Bus Market comprehensively analyses the Electric Bus Market and provides deep insight into the current and future state of the industry.

The study examines the drivers, restraints, and regional trends influencing Global Electric Bus Market demand and growth.

The report also addresses present and future market opportunities, market trends, developments, and the impact of Covid-19 on the Global Electric Bus Market, important commercial developments, trends, regions, and segments poised for the fastest growth, competitive landscape, and market share of key players.

Further, the report will also provide Global Electric Bus Market size, demand forecast, and growth rates.

What Do We Cover in the Report?

Global Electric Bus Market Drivers & Restraints

The study covers all the major underlying forces that help the market develop and grow and the factors that constrain global market growth.

The report includes a meticulous analysis of each factor, explaining the relevant, qualitative information with supporting data.

Each factor's respective impact in the near, medium, and long term will be covered using Harvey balls for visual communication of qualitative information and functions as a guide for you to analyze the degree of impact.

Global Electric Bus Market Analysis

This report discusses the overview of the market, the latest updates, important commercial developments and structural trends, and government policies and regulations.

This section provides an assessment of COVID-19 impact on Global Electric Bus Market demand.

Global Electric Bus Market Size and Demand Forecast

The report provides Global Electric Bus Market size and demand forecast until 2028, including year-on-year (YoY) growth rates and CAGR.

Global Electric Bus Market Industry Analysis

The report examines the critical elements of the global electric bus industry supply chain, its structure, and the participants

Using Porter's five forces framework, the report covers the assessment of the Global Electric Bus industry's state of competition and profitability.

Global Electric Bus Market Segmentation & Forecast

The report dissects the Global Electric Bus Market into various segments based on the powertrain (battery electric vehicle, plugin hybrid electric vehicle, fuel cell electric vehicle). A detailed summary of the current scenario, recent developments, and market outlook will be provided for each segment..

Further, market size and demand forecasts will be presented along with various drivers and barriers for individual market segments.

Effective market segmentation enables you to identify emerging trends and opportunities for long-term growth. Contact us for "bespoke" market segmentation to better align the research report with your requirements.

Regional Market Analysis

Our diligent research methodology covers detailed profiles of major countries across the world. Each country's analysis covers the current market scenario, market drivers, government policies & regulations, and country’s electric bus market outlook.

In addition, region forecast for, market size, demand, and growth rates will be provided for all regions.

Following are the notable countries covered under each region.

North America - United States, Canada, Mexico, and the Rest of North America

Europe - Germany, France, United Kingdom (UK), and the Rest of Europe

Asia Pacific - China, India, South Korea, and Rest of APAC

Rest of the world – South America, Middle East, and Africa.

Key Company Profiles

This report presents detailed profiles of Key companies in the Global Electric Bus industry. Some of the major players include BYD Co Ltd., Daimler AG, Yutong Bus Co Ltd, AB Volvo Bus, Proterra Inc, Solaris Bus & Coach sp. z o.o., etc. Generally, each company profile includes - an overview of the company, relevant products and services, a financial overview, and recent developments.

Competitive Landscape

The report provides a comprehensive list of notable companies in the market, including mergers and acquisitions (M&As), joint ventures (JVs), partnerships, collaborations, and other business agreements.

The study also discusses the strategies adopted by leading players in the industry.

Executive Summary

Executive Summary will be jam-packed with charts, infographics, and forecasts. This chapter summarizes the findings of the report crisply and clearly.

The report begins with an Executive Summary chapter and ends with Conclusions and Recommendations.

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